Value betting is a great way to bet on sports without risking too much. Find out more about value betting below!
What is Value Betting?
Value Betting involves placing a bet on a certain event to occur e.g the winner of a football match, where the odds on offer are higher than the probability of the event actually occurring.
When you find a value bet, it is referred to as having an edge over the bookie as if you were to place multiple value bets with a bookie, then over the long term, you would win more than you would lose.
For this reason, bookmakers will look to lower their odds once they identify that the odds they are offering are value odds. They will also look to stake restrict customers who they have identified as a value bettor.
Value Betting Example
A good way to illustrate value betting is by looking at an example from when Boylesports offered boosted odds on either Man City or Liverpool to win in their recent premier league match.
This is an example of where a bookmaker deliberately offers value odds in order to attract punters to bet with them. Bookmaker offers like this usually limit the amount you can stake at the boosted odds and in this case you could only stake a maximum of €10.
With this offer, you could either back Man City to win at odds of 3.0 or you could back Liverpool to win at odds of 4.5. For this example we will use the boosted odds for Man City to win.
One quick way to find out if the boosted odds being offered by Boylesports is value, is to look at the odds available on the Betfair betting exchange as the Betfair odds on Man City to win will be a lot closer to the actual probability that Man City will win.
Before the match started you get odds on Man City to win at Befair of 2.14 which implies that there is a 46.73% chance that Man City will win the match. If we compare this to the implied probability that the Boylesports odds suggest of 33.33%, we can see there is definitely value in the odds being offered by Boylesports.
If we take the Betfair Implied Probability as being correct then if we were to place 100 €10 bets like this, then we would be in profit (see table below).
|Number of Bets||Number of Bets Won||Number of Bet Lost||Overall Profit/(Loss)|
|100||46||54||(46 x €20 – 54 x €10) = €380|
How to Find Value Bets
It’s quite possible to find value bets manually by comparing the odds offered by bookmakers to the odds offered by betting exchanges and sharp bookmakers but it is much quicker and easier to use value betting software to find value bets for you.
I plan to write an article on the Best Value Betting Software in the near future but for now, I will just list some of the best free and paid options available.
- Arb Mate
- Bet Burger
- Breaking Bet
- Rebel Betting
Pros and Cons of Value Betting
Pros of Value Betting
- Quick and easy to place value bets. No need to lay off bets at a betting exchange.
- Profit Margins are usually higher than arbitrage betting
- Can be used on bookmaker accounts where you are no longer receiving promotions
- Plenty of value betting opportunities to bet on each day
Cons of Value Betting
- Bookmakers are likely to restrict the amount you can stake at some point
- Software to find Value Bets can be expensive
Value Betting FAQ
Is Value Betting risk-free?
No, Value betting is not risk free as you have to deal with the variance involved with this strategy. You may have to endure long losing strikes before you making a profit.
What Sports are best for Value Betting?
Similar to aritrage betting, football and tennis are the best sports for value betting. Just remember to stick to the bigger leagues as you will be restricted quicker of you are betting on obscure matches.
Can you lose money Value Betting?
Yes, you definitely can lose money value betting. This usually happens when beginners lose faith in the strategy. They usually don’t place enough bets for their P&L to match the EV of their bets.
Can you get banned for Value Betting?
Similar to arbitrage betting, if the bookmaker identifies you as someone who is only taking value bets then they are likely to restrict the amount you can place on a bet to pennies rather than ban you outright.