As discussed in our article on the under 2.5 goals trading strategy, the over/under 2.5 goals market is one of the most liquid markets on Betfair and is very popular with football traders.
It is also the market I use most for my own trading as I find that there is good liquidity on a large number of matches each week which means it is easier to get in and out of my trades.
What is the Over 2.5 Goals Trading Strategy?
The Over 2.5 Goals Trading Strategy is a goal positive strategy that looks to profit from goals being scored in football matches.
The strategy involves placing a back bet on over 2.5 goals either before the match starts or at some point during the match.
You then wait for a goal to be scored.
If a goal is scored, you either hedge your bet for a profit straight away or you wait for a second goal to be scored so that you can lock in a bigger profit on your trade.
When 2 goals have been scored, most traders will exit for a profit straight away but depending on how early this occurs, it may be worth waiting for a third goal so you collect all the profit on the trade.
If no goal is scored, then you exit for a loss at a predetermined point in the match (see exit strategies detailed below).
This is the key to making this strategy work, as if you aren’t willing to accept the occasional loss then you will not be successful in trading this strategy.
Over 2.5 Goals Trading Strategy – Entry Points
Pre Match – I would not recommend this entry point as you are unlikely to be getting value odds but it is an option if you have a strong belief that an early goal will be scored.
However, I think you need to accept that you will miss out on some trades due to early goals and you just have to accept it and understand that there are plenty of other matches to trade on.
After 10-15 mins of play – This is my favourite entry point for this strategy as it gives me an opportunity to watch the first 10-15 mins of the match to see if the game is going in line with my prematch research.
I will usually not enter a trade if I have not seen at least one significant goal chance i.e. a shot on target.
I am happy to wait until the 25th minute before entering a trade as I know the longer I wait the bigger the odds on over 2.5 goals will be.
25 Mins – Halftime – If I haven’t entered the trade by the 25th minute then is likely the match has had a very slow start with very few chances.
In these scenarios, I will sometimes switch to using an over 1.5 goals strategy (especially if my prematch research points heavily to there being over 1.5 goals in the match).
However, if it is a busy Saturday and I have many other trading opportunities, I will more often than not just leave the match and move on to the next one.
In the Second Half – The odds of over 2.5 goals will be much higher in the second half but this is because there is less time for 3 goals to be scored.
Personally, I don’t back over 2.5 goals in the second half as if I thought there would be goals in the second half, I would be more likely to back the over 1.5 goals.
Over 2.5 Goals Trading Strategy – Exit Strategies
After a goal is scored – Although you can usually lock in a profit after a goal is scored, if you want to be profitable with this strategy, you need to avoid taking small profits.
Instead, you should wait until a second goal is scored and be willing to at least take a scratch trade before exiting your trade.
After two goals are scored – This should be your goal with this strategy as you should be able to lock in a big profit after two goals are scored.
This is especially true if the goals are scored in the first half.
After three goals are scored – This is not an option I would recommend because if you wait for three goals to be scored then you are not really trading.
However, one option I have used in the past was to remove the liability once two goals were scored so I had a free bet on there being a third goal.
No goals are scored – If I have entered the trade early in the first half, then I will usually exit at halftime if no first-half goals have been scored.
However, if there has been a lot of action and shots on target in the first half then I will sometimes let my trade run until the 60th minute with the hope that a goal will be scored early in the first half.
I try to limit my losses to no more than 60% of the amount I have risked on the trade e.g. If I placed a back bet of €100 on over 2.5 goals, then I would look to exit my trade when my loss reached €60.
If you are a beginner, then you should try to limit your losses to 50%.
Over 2.5 Goals Trading Tips
Stagger your Back Bets – It is a good idea to stagger your back bets instead of placing all your stake in the market straight away e.g. Back 33.3% of your stake at odds of 2.0, 33.3% at odds of 2.5 and 33.4% at odds of 3.5.
By staggering your bets, you may not get all of your stake on every match but when you do your average odds will be much higher than if you simply bet 100% of your stake in one go.
First Half Goals – When doing your prematch research, look for teams who have a history of scoring at least 1 goal in the first half as first half goals scored are great for this trading strategy.
Over 1.5 Goals >80% – You may find it strange that I look at the stats for over 1.5 goals when I am trading the over 2.5 goals market but remember that most of the time you only need two goals to be scored in the match to be successful with the over 2.5 goals trading strategy.
Therefore, I look for games where both teams have scored over 1.5 goals in 80% of their previous 10 games.
How to find matches for the Over 2.5 Goals Strategy
There are plenty of free football statistics websites that you can use for your research such as SoccerStats.com and FootyStats but to save time, you can use the Team Stats Module available on the Goal Profits service.
Using the Team Stats Module, you can quickly filter a list of matches that suit the over 2.5 goals strategy.
This should save you a ton of time on research and allow you to quickly generate a shortlist of matches for you to trade on.