Over 1.5 Goals Trading Strategy

After the under/over 2.5 goals market, the Over 1.5 goals is probably the next most popular goals market for sports traders to trade on.

Over 1.5 Goals trading strategies are especially popular with beginners as they are easy to understand, implement and generally you only need one goal to make a profit with them.

We have put together this article to look at some of the ways you can deploy an over 1.5 goals trading strategy so that you can add it to your sports trading portfolio.

Over 1.5 goals trading strategy
Over 1.5 Goals Trading Strategy

Over 1.5 Goals Trading Strategies

For the below over 1.5 Goals trading strategies, I will explain how each strategy works including when you should enter the trade and what exit strategies you can use.

First Half Over 1.5 Goals

This strategy involves waiting for the odds on the First Half Over 1.5 Goals market on Betfair, Smarkets or any other betting exchange to increase from their pre match levels. Most sports traders will enter the market after around 5-10 minutes with the hope that a goal will be scored before the 30 minute mark.

If a goal is scored before halftime, you should have the option of removing your liability on the trade or greening up your position.

However, if the goal is scored too close to the end of the first half, you may not be able to exit your trade without taking a loss.

If no goal is scored, then you either exit at a predetermined loss or let the bet run until halftime.

I would not be a big fan of this strategy as teams usually don’t have a great incentive to score in the first half as many teams are happy to settle for a 0 – 0 at halftime.

The timing of the first goal is also crucial for this strategy to work.

If the goal comes too late in the first half, you won’t be able to exit for a profit as the market perceives that there isn’t enough time for the second goal.

Another downside to this strategy is that the odds start to race out the closer you get to halftime, which makes exiting the trade harder.

Even if you get a late goal, the odds are unlikely to fall below your entry point.

From my experience, the 0 – 0 at halftime scoreline is more common than you might think, so that is why I avoid this strategy and instead I focus on over 1.5 goals in the second half (see below).

Second Half Over 1.5 Goals

The Second Half Over 1.5 Goals is my preferred strategy when it comes to trading the over 1.5 goals market as teams usually have a greater incentive to score in the second half and it has been statistically proven that in most major European football leagues, more goals are scored on average in the second half than in the first half of matches.

As you may have guessed, the Second Half Over 1.5 Goals strategy involves backing over 1.5 goals to be scored in the second half of football matches.

Which market you use will depend on the current score so if it is 0 – 0 then it will be the over 1.5 goals market but if the score is 2 – 0 to one of the teams, you will use the over 3.5 goals market.

0 – 1 or 1 – 0 are good scorelines for this type of strategy as both teams will have an incentive to score a goal.

In contrast, using this strategy when a team is 3 – 0 up is not a good idea as the losing team has little chance of making a comeback and the winning team has little incentive to score the fourth goal.

0 – 0 can also be a good scoreline but the closer it is to full time the more likely both teams will play for a draw.

You should also avoid trading matches where a draw would suit both teams e.g derby matches or matches where a draw will see both teams qualify for the next round.

In terms of exit strategies, my preference is to let these bets run until full-time.

If a goal is scored, then I will remove the liability on the trade and depending on the time the goal is scored, I will either leave it as a free bet on another goal being scored or if there isn’t much time left, I will hedge so that I have equal profit on both under and over 1.5 goals.

Drip Back over 1.5 Goals

The last over 1.5 goals trading strategy I will discuss is the drip Back over 1.5 Goals strategy.

This strategy involves placing bets on the over 1.5 goals market at different points of the match.

If a goal is scored after you place any of your bets then you green up for a profit.

Different sports traders have different entry points and staking plans for this strategy. Some choose to back 50% of their liability after a certain amount of minutes (20-30 minutes) and then place the remaining 50% sometime in the second half.

Other sports traders will place their bets based on the odds e.g. 50% when the odds on over 1.5 goals reach 2.0 and 50% when the odds on over 1.5 goals reach 4.0.

My own preference is to place my bets based on time left in the match rather than odds. By doing this I can get an idea of whether the odds available at a particular time are good value or not.

If no goal is scored, you need to pick an exit point for the trade.

This can be based on the match time or based on the odds.

The choice is up to you but if you want to be successful with this strategy, you will need to have discipline in terms of exiting the trade when you hit your predetermined exit point.

How to find matches for your over 1.5 goals strategies

To make any of the above strategies work over the long term, you will need to do pre match research to narrow down the available matches.

So if you are going for the First Half Over 1.5 Goals, then you will need to find a match with teams that have a track record of scoring early on in their matches.

Other things you should look out for are strong attacking teams playing teams with weak defences and teams who have consistently scored over 1.5 goals in matches.

There are plenty of free football statistics websites that you can use for your research such as SoccerStats.com but to save time you can use the Team Stats Module available on the Goal Profits service.

Using the Team Stats Module, you can quickly filter a list of matches that will suit your chosen over 1.5 goals strategy.

If you are a part-time sports trader, this can save you a ton of time on research and lets you quickly generate a shortlist of matches for you to trade on.

1 thought on “Over 1.5 Goals Trading Strategy”

  1. Exactly, it is popular among beginners, but very rarely professionals are interested in this strategy, because it is mainly a lottery, so it is worthwhile to be interested in better strategies such as those related to Lay betting. After all, this is why we use the exchange 🙂

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