The Lay the Draw Strategy is probably one of the most well know sports trading strategies out there and is often one of the first strategies that beginner sports traders try out.
The original lay the draw strategy involved laying the draw in a football match before kick off then hedging out of your position once the first goal was scored.
In recent years, laying the draw before kick off has become less and less popular as the odds on the draw don’t jump as high after a goal as they did in the early days of Betfair.
This is especially true if the underdog gets the first goal.
Therefore lay the draw traders have had to come up with new ways of making the lay the draw work for them.
The below lay the draw tips will look at some ways lay the draw traders have used to increase their profits from laying the draw in football matches.
Top 5 Lay the Draw Tips
1. Check the in-play stats
Instead of laying a football match before kick off, you should wait to see how the match starts so you can get a read on whether there are likely to be a lot of goals in the match or whether one of the teams is dominating possession.
By entering your lay the trade in play, you will also benefit from lower odds on the draw as the odds on the draw will decrease as long as no goal has been scored by either team.
I found looking at the stats for shots off and on target and the possession percentages to be the best for indicating the likelihood of a goal.
For my trades, I won’t enter a lay the draw unless there has been at least one shot on target.
2. Watch the Match on TV/Online
Although you can lay the draw using in-play stats only, I highly recommend watching the match live so you can get a better idea of how the play is progressing.
Nothing beats watching a match to get a read on how likely a goal is to be scored.
3. Look to Lay the Draw in the Second Half
My favourite lay the draw entry point is in the second half as players have a greater incentive to score.
By entering your trade in the second half, you reduce the risk of the underdog scoring first as even if they do score first, the odds on the draw should still rise high enough for you to exit your trade.
This is because the market knows there is less time left for the favourites to get the equalising goal.
4. Look to Lay the Draw at Odds below 2.0
By laying the draw at odds of 2.0 or below, it means I only need to be right 50% of the time to be profitable over the long term.
However, by laying at these odds you will find that you will miss out on some trades but you just need to accept this and realise that there will be plenty of other trades where you will be able to get involved.
5. Avoid Matches where there is no incentive to win
Lay the Draw traders should avoid matches where there is little incentive for either team to win e.g. matches near the end of the season between teams with nothing to play for.
You should also avoid matches where a draw would suit both teams e.g. in round-robin matches in cup competitions.
I would also avoid international friendlies as they are notorious for ending nil nil.