How to find Football Matches with a High Probability of Goals

This article will look at some of the ways I use to find Football Matches with a High Probability of Goals.

For this article, I will be using MakeYourStats App but it should equally as well on your preferred football stats site.

When I am doing my pre-match research, I create a shortlist of games that have had a high probability of finishing with over 1.5 goals, a list of games where there is a high probability that a goal will be scored in the first half and a similar list for 2nd half goals.

Below I will show you how I build these shortlists using the MakeYourStats App.

Once I have built my shortlists, I will use them for my trading as most of the strategies I use are goal positive so I want to avoid low scoring matches as much as possible.

Just bear in mind that I just use these shortlists to focus in on certain games and if the in-play stats don’t look good then I won’t enter a trade.

Probability
How to find Football Matches with a High Probability of Goals

How to find Football Matches with a high probability of there being over 1.5 Goals

Below is an example of the stats you get access to for free using the MakeYourStats App.

For Over 1.5 goals, the first thing I look at is the average goals scored by each team.

My criteria for this is that both teams should have an average of at least 1 goal per game.

As you can see from the below screenshot all three games would meet this criterion.

MakeYourStats
Screenshot from MakeYourStats App – Over 1.5 Goals

Next, I look at the percentage for over 1.5 goals for both teams.

For my over 1.5 goals shortlist, I am looking for matches where both teams are greater than 80% over the last 10 games.

The final step I take is to take the list of matches I have got using the MakeYourStats App and I check the odds of over 1.5 goals for each of the matches.

Ideally, the odds should be in and around 1.30 but if the odds are below 1.20 then I may consider removing the match from my shortlist as it will be harder to profit from these sorts of matches as the market expects goals.

How to find Football Matches with a high probability of there being a First Half or Second Half Goal

To find football matches with a high probability of there being a First Half or Second Half Goal, I will look for games where the average between the two teams is at least 90%.

This is because it is much harder to predict when a goal will be scored in comparison to the total number of goals to be scored over the course of a football match.

In the screenshot below, you can see that the match between Borussia Mönchengladbach and SpVgg Greuther Fürth would qualify as a potential game that will have over 0.5 goals in the first half as the teams have a combined percentage of 92% for scoring over 0.5 goals in the first half.

For second half goals, we can see that the match between Bayer 04 Leverkusen and VfL Bochum 1848 would qualify as the teams have a combined percentage of 92% for scoring at least one goal in the second half of their last 10 games.

MakeYourStats First and Second Half Goals
Screenshot from MakeYourStats App – First Half and Second Half Goals

Final Thoughts

The above is just scratching the surface of the kind of pre match research you can do to narrow down the number of matches you need to focus on for your sports trading.

Just remember that you shouldn’t blindly follow your pre match research as just because both teams have scored over 1.5 goals in 9 of their previous 10 matches, that doesn’t mean it can’t be a 0-0 draw this time.

You need to watch the match and/or keep an eye on the in-play stats to see if it confirms your pre match research.

If after 30 minutes of play there are little or no shots on target and there hasn’t been much action then you need to reaccess whether it is worth entering your trade.