Early Goal Trading Strategy

One of the problems with using a time decay strategy like the Under 2.5 Goals Strategy is that if a goal is scored in the first 10 minutes then you are looking at a big red on your trade.

The Early Goal Strategy takes the opposite side of the Under 2.5 Goals Strategy with the aim of profiting from goals scored early on in these football matches.

Early Goal Strategy
Early Goal Strategy

What is the Early Goal Trading Strategy?

The Early Goal Trading Strategy involves placing a back bet on over 2.5 goals in a football match just before it is due to start.

The maximum amount of time that you will stay in the trade will be 15 minutes but if we see that both teams are sitting back and not attacking then we have the option of exiting sooner.

If a goal is scored in the first fifteen minutes then you will trade out for an equal profit. If no goal is scored, then you trade out for a loss on the 15 minute mark at the latest.

Selection Criteria

Below are the selection criteria for the Early Goal Trading Strategy:

  • Odds on Over 2.5 Goals below 2.0
  • First Half Goals % greater than 70% for both teams combined
  • Look for games where the teams have a history of scoring early in the first half
  • Average Goals scored in Matches Involving both teams greater than 3.

Advantages to the Early Goal Trading Strategy

  • The earlier a goal is scored the bigger the profits – The great thing about this strategy is that the earlier a goal is scored in the match the bigger your profits will be.
  • 2 Quick Goals – If there are 2 quick goals then you will be looking at a nice green screen.
  • Odds are often slow to fall – If a match starts off hot with lots of chances being created then the odds on over 2.5 goals will be slow to increase which is great for this type of strategy.
  • Good Risk to Reward Ratio – If you have discipline when trading this strategy then it will have a good risk to reward ratio as your losses will be much smaller than your wins.

Disadvantages to the Early Goal Trading Strategy

  • Requires Discipline – If you are the type of sports trader that finds it hard to accept losing trades then this will not be the strategy for you as you will have lots of small losses before you hit a winning trade.
  • Requires Good Match Selection – You need to research the form of both teams to see if they have a habit of scoring early in games.

How to find Matches for the Early Goal Strategy

There are plenty of free football statistics websites that you can use for your research such as Soccer Stats and Footy Stats but to save time you can use the Team Stats Module available from the Goal Profits service.

Using the Team Stats Module, you can quickly filter a list of matches that suit the Early Goal Trading Strategy, which can save a good bit of research time on a busy Saturday or Sunday.

Early Goal Stats

Below is a list of teams that have a good record of scoring early this season.

As you would expect big teams like Manchester City, Bayern Munich and Barcelona have regularly scored early goals in their leagues.

TeamLeagueGoals scored in first 15 minsGames Played this Season
BenficaPrimeira Liga814
Hellas VeronaSerie A917
Manchester CityPreimier League917
FC TwenteEredivisie816
AtalantaSerie A717
Inter MilanSerie A717
Ajax AmsterdamEredivisie616
Bayern MunichBundesliga616
FC BarcelonaLaLiga616
FC UtrechtEredivisie616
FSV MainzBundesliga616
AC MilanSerie A617
LiverpoolPreimier League617
LazioSerie A618
LensLigue 1618
MetzLigue 1618
AZ AlkmaarEredivisie516
Last Updated: 17/12/2021