The Back the Draw Strategy may not be as popular as the Lay the Draw Strategy but it is been used more and more by traders over the last couple of years as they perceive value in backing the draw as the average punter prefers backing one of the two teams to win.
The theory behind the strategy is that because less money is placed on draws, the odds on the draw will be higher than the actual probability of a draw occurring.
Therefore, sports traders can profit from this market inefficiency.
Advantages of Backing the Draw
Straight forward to set up – Most back the draw strategies are very straightforward and only involve placing a back bet on the draw pre match then letting it run until full time.
As the odds on the draw are usually 3.0 or above, traders only need 1 in 3 of their trades to be correct to be in profit.
This is great for traders who may not have the time to trade the match in play.
Value Odds – As mentioned previously, sports traders believe the odds on the draw are often too high as the average punter rarely backs the draw as they consider it the boring choice.
Regular punters want exciting matches with lots of goals and not boring 0-0 draws so they are likely to bet on one of the teams to win rather than going for the draw.
Can be a set and forget strategy – Another reason backing the draw is popular, is that you can place your trades pre match and let them run until full time so that you don’t have to be at your computer and/or watching the game for this strategy to work.
You can simply place your trades in a couple of minutes and then check your results when the matches have all finished.
Lots of trading opportunities – During the football season, you will find a lot of trading opportunities for the back the draw strategy with 2-4 potential trades a day (more at weekends).
Strategy is scalable – You can start small with this strategy and then gradually increase your stakes over time as there is usually good liquidity on the draw in the top European and UK leagues.
Back the Draw Strategies
Back the draw when the game is expected to be close
This trading strategy involves betting on the draw when the market expects a close match with not many goals being scored.
The best way to find this out is to look at the under 2.5 goals market.
If the odds on under 2.5 goals is less than 2.0 then the market expects a close match.
Back the draw after a goal is scored
Often after a goal is scored, the market will overreact and the odds of the draw will go higher than they should.
This is especially true if the team that is favourite to win the match scores early on.
Sports Traders can take advantage of this, by backing the draw, then laying the draw once the other team scores an equaliser.
If the winning team scores before an equaliser is scored, then the trader will have the trade for a loss.
Back the draw scalping
Similar to the under 2.5 goals strategy, the odds on the draw will slowly decrease over time as you get closer to the full time whistle.
The strategy involves placing a back bet on the draw and then laying a few ticks below that so that you can hedge for a profit.
The best time to use this kind of strategy is in the second half as the odds on the draw will fall faster than they will in the first half.
The main danger to using this strategy is that a goal is scored while your trade is open.
As there might not be a lot of time left after a goal is scored, you will likely be looking at a heavy loss on your trade.
How do you find back the draw selections?
To make any of the above back the draw strategies profit over the long term, you will need to do pre match research to narrow down your possible selections.
Things you should look out for include the odds on under 2.5 goals (look for matches where the under 2.5 goals odds are below 2.0), the recent form of both teams (look for teams that are struggling to score and/or who have drawn a lot of recent matches) and factors that increase the probability of a draw occurring e.g. derby matches, matches where a draw suits both teams or friendly matches where there is no great incentive to win.
There are plenty of free statistics sites that you can use for your research with SoccerStats.com being my favourite but to save time and energy searching through these stat sites, you can use the Team Stats Module available on the Goal Profits service.
Using this you can quickly filter a list of soccer matches that will suit your chosen Back the Draw strategy.
If you are a part-time sports trader, then this can save you a ton of time on research and lets you quickly generate a shortlist of matches for you to trade on.